🚨⚠️ AURORA ALERT! ⚠️🚨 THERE IS A POSSIBLITY OF STRONG AURORA BOREALIS AKA NORTHERN LIGHTS! A STRONG G3 TO MAJOR G4 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH IS NOW IN PLACE FOR JUNE 1ST INTO JUNE 2ND! 💚💜💙
The Sun has been rather busy in the last few days. Firstly, we were hit with the high speed stream from a large coronal hole. Following this the Sun has been busy firing off multiple C class flares, multiple M class flares and now we've seen a monster of a flare fired from an Earth facing sunspot too!
At least two, potentially three of these M class flares fired off a coronal mass ejections and depending on their speed, we could see a 1, 2 maybe 3 punch leading to elevated stats over the next couple of days.
A strong (G3) to severe (G4) geomagnetic storm watch was officially added by NOAA/SWPC beginning late in the day June 1st and into June 2nd.
MULTIPLE M CLASS SOLAR FLARES
The Sun has been very active recently with multiple solar flares.
Early yesterday morning (30th May) an M3.4 solar flare was observed around AR 4100 at 06:13 UTC. Associated with this event was a type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 538 km/s. Coronal dimming was evident and a faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen emerging following the solar flare. NASA modeled a glancing blow from this CME for June 2nd.
Later in the day yesterday (30th May) newly assigned sunspot region 4104 continued to gradually develop and was the source of an M1.6 solar flare peaking at 18:39 UTC.
This morning (May 31) two flares occurred from AR4100 in fairly quick succession. An M2.4 solar flare was observed at at 05:18 UTC, followed shortly after by a M4.6 flare at 08:18 UTC.
In fact a number of coronal mass ejections were visible in the past couple of days!
THE BIG M.82 (ALMOST X CLASS) FLARE!
So, onto the main event. The Sun produced a strong, very long duration (lasted more than 3 hours!) M8.2 flare (almost X flare!) on 31st May at 00:05 UTC from active region 4100. This flare was eruptive and GOES-19 CCOR and SOHO coronagraph imagery showed that a full halo coronal mass ejection was released! This event was associated with type II radio emissions with an estimated velocity of 1938 km/s or 4.3 million mph! 🙀
The Sunspot from which this flare was fired from was located in a favourable position (on the Earth facing side of the Sun in the center of the disc) for a direct Earth hit. While early indications suggested that the bulk of the plasma may be heading North away from Earth leaving us with a glancing blow, later models by both NASA and NOAA are indicating a direct hit with the plasma cloud heading straight for Earth! 💖
This was a very long duration full halo coronal mass ejection from a substantial flare and entangled with a long snaking filament as well. The sheer amount of plasma released was substantial, so we could be in for a treat! Especially if combined with the other slower CMEs which may be heading our way! In fact while it may not be on May 10th scale, we could be looking at one of the biggest events of solar cycle 25!
Currently this is forecast to hit us June 1st into June 2nd and may lead to strong g3 or major g4 level geomagnetic storming, which could lead to some very nice aurora displays down to mid or even low latitudes if everything falls into place just right.
Space weather can and does surprise us too, so you never know how these things will develop. It is definitely worth being on alert from tomorrow. Saying that we will be watching the stats from tonight!
FURTHER POTENTIAL SOLAR ACTIVITY
There is further potential for more big flares and potentially further coronal mass ejections with multiple Sun spot groups looking very exciting.
The rather large sunspot groups Active Regions 4100 and 4099 have recently increased in complexity and now contain a magnetic classification of beta gamma delta which is very promising.
Additional M-Flares will remain possible and there is an increased 15% chance for a strong X-Flare.
THE MOON
On the 1st June to the 2nd of June the Moon will be in waxing crescent phase, between 36 and 46 percent illuminated and will set at around 01:33 - 01.45. This means the Moon will illuminating our skies somewhat, but shouldn't cause too much light pollution interference. Infact, sometimes a little moonlight can help with aurora photography by lighting up the foreground.
EARTH WEATHER
Even if we were treated to a lovely display, the clouds can come along and spoil the party. The Earth weather is looking much better tomorrow night compared to the forecasts for Monday so far. But we will be checking cloud radars closer to time for a more accurate forecast.
FINAL WORDS FROM ASTRO DOG
Whilst this could lead to something very exciting, there is no guarantee. We often find that the plasma can hit in daylight hours, or fizzle out, the interplanetary magnetic field could be in an unfavourable position/polarity or Earth weather could not cooperate etc.
A lot of factors must come together just right to accumulate in an aurora display. We won't know exactly how good this may be until data reaches satellite level around an hour or so ahead of reaching Earth. We have our fingers crossed everything comes together just right to accumulate in a great aurora display.
We will make sure to be watching the satellites that give us a better idea of what we might expect through the day/night and be ready to inform you if everything looks good for a display. Please follow the main post on Astro Dog for up to date updates in the comments.
Cross your fingers please everybody! 😊🤞