🚨 ASTRO DOG SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORT AND AURORA ALERT. 🚨👀💚💜💙✨️
💚 Minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch for 23rd, 24th and 25th December
💜 Potential for further activity around New Year's Eve too! 🤞
So since the stunning displays we witnessed mid-December, activity had quietened down a little, especially for those of us at lower latitudes. Thankfully, things have picked up a little again.
You may have seen our alerts on our previous solar update/aurora alerts post whereby Scotland and beyond have been treated to some lovely aurora the last few days, in fact this would have been visibly across the whole of the UK had most of us not been blanketed by clouds. Thankfully, it looks like activity may continue over the next few days leading up to Christmas! 😁
Please read below for more information...
CORONAL HOLE
Large coronal hole No 9 began to directly face Earth over the last couple of days and the coronal hole stream has begun to arrive at Earth, as evidenced by the recent space weather stats and heightened aurora activity the last couple of days.
A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch was issued beginning December 22nd when the high speed solar wind stream flowing from this zone was predicted to reach our planet, however this arrived a little earlier than expected.
While not officially forecast, NOAA/SWPC have suggested the potential for moderate (G2) storming over the next day or so.
Therefore, aurora watchers should be alert over the next few days, especially at higher latitudes.
SUNSPOT REGIONS, SOLAR FLARES AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS
Sadly sunspot regions have been fairly quiet, however we have a few regions of interest, AR4316 which is approaching the centre of the Earth facing solar disc, showing beta-delta magnetic complexity currently and has been responsible for multiple C class and M class solar flares the last few days. Also of interest is AR317, which is currently located in the North East quadrant. While this region is not magnetically complex just yet, it is showing signs of growth and has been producing multiple C class solar flares.
POTENTIAL GLANCING BLOW TO REACH EARTH
A third region of interest is AR4315 which is approaching the centre of the Earth facing disc. Again, while this region is not magnetically complex, it has been producing C and M class solar flares. One of these (M1.3 class) flares was eruptive and did produce a coronal mass ejection (7:53 UTC on December 21st) and although this wasn't directly Earth facing, we could be treated to a glancing blow.
Current predictions expect this to arrive on December 24th and NOAA suggested we may see minor (G1) with the possibility of a moderate geomagnetic storm surrounding this date. While NASA believes this could miss us completely. However, as always we should wait and see what happens, if it arrives, this could arrive early or late, and we still need the interplanetary magnetic field to be favourable. Fingers crossed this arrives at a favourable time and with a favourable polarity for us!
FAR SIDE OF THE SUN
Additionally, looking at far side imagery, you can clearly see that the highly active groups we saw earlier in the month are still going strong. We will get a better look at these in a week or so. But so far these regions look like they could continue to be promising. 👀
ON TO CURRENT ACTIVITY!
Currently, the stats are looking fairly promising. While the solar wind density is fairly low at around 2-6 p/cm3 and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is also fairly average at around 6.23 nT, the solar wind speed is fairly elevated at around 700 km/sec thanks to the coronal hole stream which will continue to be geoeffective over the coming days. The polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field is trying to hold South, hopefully this sustains South and allows activity to build up.
THE MOON
Thankfully, the Moon is currently out of the way for the majority of the night, therefore there will be minimal natural light pollution interference from the Moon.
EARTH WEATHER
Another thing to consider when aurora hunting is the Earth weather. We have had so much cloud cover recently. Sadly based on current radars, it looks like more of the same tonight with most of us blanketed in clouds, however there may potentially be small gaps appearing on the West coast of England, Scotland and Wales and the South of Ireland.
Wednesday looks more promising for the Moray coast, the West coast of Scotland, Wales and England and Ireland.
Thursday (Christmas) looks much better for much of the UK, as does Friday (Boxing Day).
Hopefully some of us will be treated to clear skies or gaps over the coming days. As we all know, the Earth weather forecasts are never 100 percent accurate and things can and do change, so it's worth checking your skies.
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
Remember, while we have the possibility of minor to moderate geomagnetic storming, things sometimes end up different to the forecasts. The particles from these CME's could fizzle out, they can miss all together, they can arrive during our hours of daylight, and they can arrive with the wrong polarity and not interact with our magnetic field. We also have to consider the Earth weather as well.
FOLLOW THIS POST FOR UPDATES
All in all there is potential for at least some minor, possibly moderate aurora activity in the next few days!
Of course, we will be keeping an eye on the satellite data and keep you all updated. Please click to follow this post for up to date/accurate Aurora alerts, all updates will be in the comments. 👇
This post will be pinned to the announcement section for easy access.
We always make sure to keep an eye on things throughout the night and alert you if things are looking promising to give you all the best chance possible of seeing and catching photographs of the aurora yourselves. 😊💖