GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH STILL IN PLACE. COULD THE RECENT ACTIVITY LEAD TO AURORA? FINGERS CROSSED! 💚💜💙🤞
As mentioned in our previous post there have been a series of Earth directed coronal mass ejections recently that have led to a moderate g2 to strong g3 geomagnetic storm watch.
Unfortunately while at least one of the coronal mass ejections arrived last night and caused a fairly large increase in the solar wind speed, solar wind density and strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, unfortunately just as that happened the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field swung North and prevented an aurora display from developing. Although in true mother nature fashion, the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field swung South just as we lost our dark skies. Typical. You couldn't write it. It was literally swinging South as we were walking down the cliffs at the same time we lost nautical twilight. 🙈
Since then the stats have diminished back to average levels which may lead to a little aurora in the far North, but the stats are looking fairly average at the moment.
We do have a few coronal mass ejections heading to Earth though, so we could still see impact tonight or it could hit tomorrow night. It could even hit in the day time, which would be unfortunate for us, but great (again) for those across the pond. We won't know exactly if and when anything is likely to hit until it reaches at a satellite level. At this point we will have a little heads up around an hour before it hits Earth. Before you all go rushing out, please wait for further updates.
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
Even if everything does fall in place for a display tonight it unlikely to be as strong as the incredible display on May 10th. Everything lined up just perfectly for the May the 10th display, with multiple X and M class flares leading to strong Earth bound coronal mass ejections which then combined and all hit Earth as darkness fell, during a time when there was minimal natural light pollution interference from the Moon and so many of us were treated to clear skies.
Catching a display at this time of year can be a challenge given our window of opportunity to catch the Northern Lights is fairly narrow currently due to our narrow window of dark skies.
Also the bright 27% illuminated Moon will rise shortly after we enter the darker stage of twilight here in Scarborough and will therefore cause some natural light pollution interference.
Typically an aurora display is likely to be visible on camera only or faint to the naked eye and on virtually every night other than May 10th you need to find somewhere with a nice clear view of the Northern Horizon (seeing aurora South at our latitudes is EXTREMELY rare). Ideally somewhere with clear, dark skies and as little light pollution in the immediate area/towards the North as possible.
But you never know, we could be in for a treat. We will see. Mother nature does what mother nature does! 😊
EARTH WEATHER
With regards to the Earth weather, it looks like the worst hit will be Scotland, Wales, the midlands and Yorkshire, with a large band of cloud moving Eastwards throughout the night. The cloud looks like it may thin out and move across steadily throughout the night, so hopefully we are all treated to clear to partially clear skies throughout the night. Forecasts are never perfect though. Fingers crossed for clear skies
OUTLOOK OF TONIGHTS STATS SO FAR
As it stands the solar wind speed (around 424.7km/s) and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (6.58nT) is fairly average at the moment and the solar wind density (around 1.81p/cm) is rather weak.
The direction of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) is currently North which is not great either. If the bz holds South ahead of darkness this will allow the strength to build and may lead to weak aurora for those far North.
We are still awaiting for arrival of anticipated CMEs to boost things. As we all know, we can't guarantee anything as many things have to come together just right to accumulate in a display, however we have some of the ingredients. Whether they come together at the right time or not is another matter.
THE MOON
Unfortunately in Scarborough the 27% illuminated Moon is rising around 23:15 which isn't ideal, because this is shortly after we enter our darker twilight skies and will be up all night. Therefore it will be causing some natural light pollution when it rises. For those of you further South, it may cause less interference as you have a longer window of darker skies before the Moon rises.
WHEN IS IT DARK?
Unfortunately the skies are still darker rather late on and are getting bright early on given we're in Summer, so the window for catching the lights is fairly narrow, especially in the North. However with each night that passes the nights will get longer (hurray).
In Scarborough we reach nautical twilight at 22:53. Sadly we don't experience astronomical darkness at the moment, but we will be later in the week! These times will change depending on where you live. Further South you reach darkness earlier and further North you reach darkness later.
WHAT LOCATION IS GOOD FOR AURORA?
We often get asked where is a good location to see the aurora. Typically the usual answer would be the further North, the better. However at this time of year, due to the brighter skies in the North this doesn't always hold true.
It's good to have somewhere close by that you can get to quickly. Typically anywhere with a good view of the Northern Horizon and as little light pollution as possible in the immediate area and towards the North is good.
If the aurora is particularly strong it is possible to view a display from light polluted areas, although this only happens on rare occasions.
VISIBLE TO THE EYE/VISIBLE ON CAMERA?
If you own a camera and tripod that will allow you to take long exposure photographs, we recommend you take this out with you to maximise your chances of viewing an auroral display.
The aurora is often only visible on camera rather than to the eyes. The reason for this is because camera sensors are much more sensitive than the human eye to low levels of light, especially when capturing long exposure photographs which gather light over multiple seconds. But you never know, when we have strong displays we can get lucky and it can become visible to the eye. It has been visible to the eye in Scarborough quite a few times lately! We will see! 👀
When the aurora is visible to the eye, you may see a subtle glow/brightening on the horizon. Occasionally you may be able to see definition/structures such as light columns stretching into the sky and moving side to side. On rare occasions you may also be able to see subtle patches of colours (usually reds) too! However don’t expect to see anything as vivid as a photograph taken on a camera.
LET YOUR EYES ADAPT TO THE DARK
In the rare chance that a display is strong enough to view by eye, it can help being in a dark place and letting your eyes adjust to the darkness. If you can, do not look at any bright lights such as streetlights or mobile phones for roughly 15 -30 minutes and you will be able to see much fainter details towards the North. This can help you maximise your chances of viewing the aurora by eye. The further North you are, the more chance you have of seeing the aurora to the naked eye. But as we've said, we've seen the aurora to the naked eye on several occasions here in Scarborough over the last year.
CLOSING WORDS FROM ASTRO DOG
Whilst we have written this post based off the current stats everything can change for better or worse moment by moment. We will be keeping an eye on things throughout the night and will keep you updated.
Don’t worry if you don’t get to see or catch the aurora this time, this coming season is predicted to be great for aurora displays due to us heading into solar maximum – a time within the Sun’s 11 year cycle where it is most active. We have been treated to some incredible displays these last couple of seasons. So fingers crossed we will be treated to some big flares/coronal mass ejections launched out towards Earth as the skies become darker again. 🤞✨️