POSSIBLE AURORA AGAIN TONIGHT IF THE CURRENT STATS CAN HOLD UNTIL NIGHTFALL! FINGERS CROSSED! 💚💜💙🤞
Wow, what a night last night was! The aurora was visible from dark and really burst into life at various points throughout the night where it was easily visible to the naked eye. Beautiful pinks, greens and white beams were stretching up in to the sky on camera and there was even visible to the eye structure with rays dancing in the sky up to the Plough at points! It is important to remember that often the aurora has more intense flurries, so even if it's not visible straight away, it can be worth waiting it out and you may be rewarded for your patience. In fact last night the aurora was visible from dark until dusk and kept going putting in a prolonged display for those across the pond such as in New Zealand and Australia. Another great display to kick off the new aurora season with a bang! Well done to those of you who caught it! 😊
Now the question on many peoples lips is will this happen again tonight? Well, today another Coronal Mass Ejection arrived to Earth and given the IMF is still strong and the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (bz) has been holding South for some time. If this can hold until nightfall, then we could well be treated to some more aurora tonight, so fingers crossed folks!
Even if the aurora doesn't play ball, for those of you with clear skies, the Moon will be out of the way, the milkyway will be visible in dark sky areas and we have a minor active meteor shower called the Aurigids that is active and reached it's peak last night. We were treated to sights of several great meteors throughout the night. So it is a great time to head out and do a spot of stargazing! 🌠
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
Even if everything does fall in place for a display tonight, please don't expect anything as strong as the incredible display on May 10th. Everything lined up just perfectly for the May the 10th display, with multiple X and M class flares leading to strong Earth bound coronal mass ejections which then combined and all hit Earth as darkness fell, during a time when there was minimal natural light pollution interference from the Moon and many of us were treated to clear skies.
EARTH WEATHER
With regards to the Earth weather, it looks like a tale of two halves as we head towards darkness. The South of the UK looks like it will be covered in clouds, with a few openings throughout the night and the North of the UK will be treated to clear to partially clear skies throughout the night. This cloud cover is forecast to move steadily Northwards throughout the night which will lead to cloud cover in the North of England, Ireland and Scotland, while clearing a little in the South. Hopefully lots of us are treated to clear or partially clear skies throughout the night. Forecasts are never perfect. Fingers crossed for clear skies!
OUTLOOK OF TONIGHTS STATS SO FAR
As it stands the solar wind speed (around 389.2km/s) is fairly average at the moment and the solar wind density (around 1.78p/cm) is very low. However the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (13.43nT) is still rather elevated!
Thankfully the direction of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) has been holding South for some time which is great. If this holds this may allow things to develop and we may see some aurora as a result.
As we all know, we can't guarantee anything as many things have to come together just right to accumulate in a display, however we have some of the ingredients. Whether they come together at the right time for us is another matter.
THE MOON
In Scarborough the 7% illuminated Moon sets at 02:24. With the Moon in only a very slender crescent phase and rising late on it shouldn't really cause much interference to our dark skies at all.
WHEN IS IT DARK?
Thankfully our skies are starting to get darker earlier and earlier, so the window for catching the lights is getting longer with each night that passes (hurray).
In Scarborough we reach nautical twilight at 21:17 until around 04:45. After what feels like so long of not experiencing astronomical darkness, we are finally seeing astro dark skies in Scarborough again. Our period of astronomical darkness is between 22:10 and 03:52. These times will change depending on where you live. Further South you reach darkness earlier and further North you reach darkness later.
WHAT LOCATION IS GOOD FOR AURORA?
We often get asked where is a good location to see the aurora. Typically the further North, the better. However this does depend on Earth weather and if you can't travel it's good to have somewhere close by that you can get to quickly. Typically anywhere with a good view of the Northern Horizon and as little light pollution as possible in the immediate area and towards the North is good.
If the aurora is particularly strong it is possible to view a display from light polluted areas, although this only happens on rare occasions.
VISIBLE TO THE EYE/VISIBLE ON CAMERA?
If you own a camera and tripod that will allow you to take long exposure photographs, we recommend you take this out with you to maximise your chances of viewing an auroral display.
The aurora is often only visible on camera rather than to the eyes. Cameras are also able to capture all the vivid colours that the aurora can display. The reason for this is because camera sensors are much more sensitive to low levels of light compared to the human eye, especially when capturing long exposure photographs which gather more light over multiple seconds.
But you never know, when we have strong displays the Aurora can become visible to the eye. It has been visible to the eye in Scarborough quite a few times lately! We will see! 👀
When the aurora is visible to the eye, you may see a subtle glow/brightening on the horizon. Occasionally you may be able to see definition/structures such as light columns stretching into the sky and moving side to side. On rare occasions you may also be able to see subtle patches of colours (usually reds) too! However don’t expect to see anything as vivid as a photograph taken on a camera.
LET YOUR EYES ADAPT TO THE DARK
In the rare chance that a display is strong enough to view by eye, it can help being in a dark place and letting your eyes adjust to the darkness. If you can, do not look at any bright lights such as streetlights or mobile phones for roughly 15 -30 minutes and you will be able to see much fainter details towards the North. This can help you maximise your chances of viewing the aurora by eye. Usually the further North you are, the more chance you have of seeing the aurora to the naked eye (except during the summer). But as we've said, we've seen the aurora to the naked eye on several occasions here in Scarborough over the last year.
CLOSING WORDS FROM ASTRO DOG
Whilst we have written this post based off the current stats everything can change for better or worse, moment by moment. We will be keeping an eye on things throughout the night and will keep you updated.
Don’t worry if you don’t get to see or catch the aurora this time, this coming season is predicted to be great for aurora displays due to us heading into solar maximum – a time within the Sun’s 11 year cycle where it is most active. We have been treated to some incredible displays these last couple of seasons. So fingers crossed we will be treated to some big flares/coronal mass ejections launched out towards Earth as the skies become darker again. 🤞✨️
Good luck if you head out, stay safe and as always we wish you clear skies. 💚💜💙✨️
