AURORA ALERT! GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH IN NOW IN PLACE! POSSIBLE AURORA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS! FINGERS CROSSED! 💚💜💙🤞
Well after a fairly quiet period, the Sun has been rather busy over the last few days, with multiple filament eruptions, flares and coronal mass ejections! We now have a geomagnetic storm watch in place over the next few nights and with the Moon out of the way we could be in for a treat if it hits at the right time for us. We will summarise some solar activity of interest below.
X7.5 SOLAR FLARE! - POTENTIAL GLANCING BLOW FROM FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
While a lot of the solar activity either hasn't produced a coronal mass ejection or is not Earth facing, on Tuesday October the 1st AR3842 unleashed a strong X7.5 solar flare at 22:20 UTC which gave rise to a faint full halo Coronal Mass Ejection. While not the strongest eruption and the majority of the eruption is heading away from Earth towards the South East, we are expected to receive a glancing blow here on Earth. This is currently forecast to pass Earth later today. We therefore now have a minor g1 to strong g3 geomagnetic storm watch in place over the next few days. This may arrive earlier or later than expected, so our fingers are crossed that it hits during our hours of darkness! This region is very complex with Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration and may well lead to further strong flares.
HOT OFF THE PRESS - LARGE X9.05 SOLAR FLARE IN PROGRESS AT THE TIME OF WRITING!
So, while I was writing this post a huge X9.05 is currently in progress! This is now the biggest solar flare of solar cycle 25! Beginning at 12.18 UTC. A type II radio emission has been observed so there is likely an eruption associated! Fingers crossed that this is correct and there is a strong, Earth directed coronal mass ejection! This region is now in the perfect Earth facing position, so this is very exciting indeed! We will add more information as it comes in!
GOING FORWARDS
There is currently a 99% chance of C class flares, a 75% chance of M class flares and a 35% chance of more X class flares.
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
Even if everything does fall in place for a display over the coming evenings, please don't expect something as strong as the incredible display on May 10th. Everything lined up just perfectly for the May the 10th display, with multiple Earth directed X and M class flares leading to strong Earth bound coronal mass ejections which then combined and all hit Earth as darkness fell, during a time when there was minimal natural light pollution interference from the Moon and many of us were treated to clear skies.
EARTH WEATHER
With regards to the Earth weather, it looks like the majority of the UK will be blessed with light cloud and clear skies as we head towards darkness. However it looks like a band of heavy cloud and later rain will be moving in from the West and will hit Ireland and Scotland throughout the course of the evening. Across the UK and Wales we are forecast to see patches of cloud develop throughout the evening, however we are hoping this will be intermittent and lots of us are treated to clear skies throughout the night. Forecasts are never perfect, especially this far in advance! Fingers crossed for clear skies!
OUTLOOK OF TONIGHTS STATS SO FAR
As it stands, the solar wind speed (around 286.6km/s) and the solar wind density (around 0.17p/cm) is very very low. However the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (5.39nT) is reasonable/average at the moment.
Thankfully the direction of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) has been holding South for some time which is promising. We will be watching the satellites with a keen eye to see if and when the glancing blow from the X7.5 flare arrives.
As we all know, we can't guarantee anything, as many things have to come together just right to accumulate in a display, however we have some of the ingredients. Whether it materialises is another matter.
THE MOON
The Waxing New Moon is only 1% illuminated and from Scarborough this doesn't rise until 06:50. Therefore the Moon will not be causing any natural light pollution interference tonight and we will be blessed with beautifully dark skies, perfect for stargazing, planet spotting and aurora watching.
WHEN IS IT DARK?
Thankfully our skies are starting to get darker earlier and earlier, so the window for catching the lights is getting longer with each night that passes (hurray).
In Scarborough we reach nautical twilight at 19:48 until around 05:52. After what feels like so long of not experiencing astronomical darkness, we are finally seeing long hours of astro dark skies in Scarborough again. Our period of astronomical darkness is between 20:30 and 05:10. These times will change depending on where you live. Further South you reach darkness earlier and further North you reach darkness later.
WHAT LOCATION IS GOOD FOR AURORA?
We often get asked where is a good location to see the aurora. Typically the further North, the better. However this does depend on Earth weather and if you can't travel. It's good to have somewhere close by that you can get to quickly. Typically anywhere with a good view of the Northern Horizon and as little light pollution as possible in the immediate area and towards the North is good.
If the aurora is particularly strong it is possible to view a display from light polluted areas, although this only happens on rare occasions.
WHAT TIME WILL THE AURORA HAPPEN?
This is impossible to predict. We won't know if and when the aurora will likely occur until it reaches the satellites an hour or so before arrival. At this point we will be writing aurora updates in the comments and will continue to do this throughout the night, so please do keep your eye our for these. If you'd like to make sure you receive notifications for these, please click the 3 dots above this post and click "turn on notifications for this post".
HOW LONG DOES THE AURORA LAST?
Sometimes an auroral display can last for a few minutes, sometimes a few hours and sometimes across multiple evenings. It is important to remember that often the aurora has more intense flurries, so even if it's not visible straight away, it can be worth waiting it out and you may be rewarded for your patience.
VISIBLE TO THE EYE/VISIBLE ON CAMERA?
If you own a camera and tripod that will allow you to take long exposure photographs, we recommend you take this out with you to maximise your chances of viewing an auroral display.
The aurora is often only visible on camera rather than to the eyes. Cameras are also able to capture all the vivid colours that the aurora can display. The reason for this is because camera sensors are much more sensitive to low levels of light compared to the human eye, especially when capturing long exposure photographs which gather more light over multiple seconds. If the aurora is very strong then you can even catch it hand held on your mobile phones using night mode.
But you never know, when we have strong displays the Aurora can become visible to the eye. It has been visible to the eye in Scarborough quite a few times lately! We will see! 👀
When the aurora is visible to the eye, you may see a subtle glow/brightening on the horizon. Occasionally you may be able to see definition/structures such as light columns stretching into the sky and moving side to side. On rare occasions you may also be able to see subtle patches of colours (usually reds) too! However don’t expect to see anything as vivid as a photograph taken on a camera.
LET YOUR EYES ADAPT TO THE DARK
In the rare chance that a display is strong enough to view by eye, it can help being in a dark place and letting your eyes adjust to the darkness. If you can, do not look at any bright lights such as streetlights or mobile phones for roughly 15 -30 minutes and you will be able to see much fainter details towards the North. This can help you maximise your chances of viewing the aurora by eye. Usually the further North you are, the more chance you have of seeing the aurora to the naked eye.
CLOSING WORDS FROM ASTRO DOG
Whilst this could lead to something exciting, there is no guarantee. Timing is crucial here. We often find that the charged particles can hit our atmosphere in daylight hours, which is no good for us and then fizzle out when we reach darkness, or the Earth weather scuppers things or direction of the interplanetary magnetic field does not cooperate etc.
There is still a long way until dark tonight and anything can happen between now and then. As we all know, we can't guarantee anything as many things have to come together just right to accumulate in an aurora display, however many of the ingredients are in place.
We also won't know exactly how good this may be until data reaches satellite level around an hour ahead of reaching Earth. We have our fingers crossed everything comes together just right to accumulate in a great aurora display!
We will make sure to be watching the satellites that give us a better idea of what we might expect through the day/night and be ready to inform you if everything looks good for a display.
Please follow this post and we will do our best to update throughout the day and night. Lets keep our fingers crossed for later. Cross your fingers please everybody! 🤞
Don’t worry if you don’t get to see or catch the aurora this time, this coming season is predicted to be great for aurora displays due to us heading into solar maximum – a time within the Sun’s 11 year cycle where it is most active. We have been treated to some incredible displays these last couple of seasons. So fingers crossed we will be treated to some big flares/coronal mass ejections launched out towards Earth as the skies become darker for longer again.
Good luck if you head out, stay safe and as always we wish you clear skies. 💚💜💙✨️