AURORA ALERT! MODERATE G2/ STRONG G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH IN NOW IN PLACE! POSSIBLE AURORA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW! FINGERS CROSSED! 💚💜💙🤞
Wow, what a weekend we've had with some wonderful displays seen up and down the country. We loved sharing that experience with the guests at our stargazing experiences in Dalby Forest too! Well done to everyone who caught it. We've seen some beautiful pinks, greens, reds, purples and even blues, with beams stretching up in to the sky and there was even visible to the eye structure with rays dancing in the sky up to the Plough at points too! Another couple of excellent displays to start off the new aurora season! 😊
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND WORDS
Thank you to everyone who has sent us messages and kind words. We are so pleased to have helped so many witness the lights and many people for the first time too. It's an incredible feeling to share something we are so passionate about with so many people. This is why we do what we do, to help others enjoy the wonders of the night sky.
ROUND UP OF RECENT SOLAR ACTIVITY!
The Sun has been rather active recently with a number of flares, coronal mass ejections and a couple of coronal holes too! We will summarise some solar activity of interest below.
X4.5 SOLAR FLARE! - POTENTIAL GLANCING BLOW FROM FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
On Saturday the 14th AR3825 unleashed a strong X4.5 solar flare at 15:29 UTC which gave rise to a fast moving full halo Coronal Mass Ejection. While the majority of this eruption headed away from Earth towards the East, we are expected to receive a glancing blow here on Earth. This is currently forecast to arrive today. We therefore now have a moderate g2 to strong g3 geomagnetic storm watch in place for both today and tomorrow. This may arrive earlier or later than expected, so our fingers are crossed that it hits during our hours of darkness!
EARTH FACING CORONAL HOLES
We also have a pair of coronal holes which while they aren't central (one is located to the North and the other to the South of the visible solar disc) they may well contribute to boosting the levels of solar wind with their combined solar wind streams.
OTHER SOLAR FLARES/CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS
There have been a number of other low level C class flares and moderate M class flares, some of which have given rise to coronal mass ejections. While these haven't been modeled as a direct hit, these could also help boost activity.
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
Even if everything does fall in place for a display tonight, please don't expect something as strong as the incredible display on May 10th. Everything lined up just perfectly for the May the 10th display, with multiple Earth directed X and M class flares leading to strong Earth bound coronal mass ejections which then combined and all hit Earth as darkness fell, during a time when there was minimal natural light pollution interference from the Moon and many of us were treated to clear skies.
EARTH WEATHER
With regards to the Earth weather, it looks like the majority of the UK will be blessed with clear skies as we head towards darkness. However it looks like the North West of Scotland and North West of Ireland will be battling clouds. Sadly as we head further into the evening pockets of cloud are expected to occur over Southern Scotland, Southern Ireland, Wales, Yorkshire, Norfolk, Devon and Cornwall. Hopefully lots of us are treated to clear or partially clear skies throughout the night. Forecasts are never perfect, especially this far in advsnce! Fingers crossed for clear skies!
OUTLOOK OF TONIGHTS STATS SO FAR
As it stands, the solar wind speed (around 439.9km/s) is fairly average at the moment and the solar wind density (around 2.09p/cm) is very low. However the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (9.55nT) is rather elevated already! It has jumped a little in the last couple of hours, so we will be keeping our eyes on that!
Thankfully the direction of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) has been holding South for some time which is also great. If this holds this may allow things to develop and we may see some aurora as a result.
As we all know, we can't guarantee anything, as many things have to come together just right to accumulate in a display, however we have some of the ingredients. Whether conditions can improve/last until nightfall is another matter.
THE MOON
In Scarborough the 98% illuminated Waxing Gibbous Moon doesn't set until 03:39. With the Moon up the majority of the night it will cause natural light pollution interference and wash the aurora out a little, especially for those of us at lower latitudes. However if the aurora is strong enough then it can beat the moonlight. Infact the Moon can often help light the foreground when that's the case, which is great for photography.
WHEN IS IT DARK?
Thankfully our skies are starting to get darker earlier and earlier, so the window for catching the lights is getting longer with each night that passes (hurray).
In Scarborough we reach nautical twilight at 20:32 until around 05:19. After what feels like so long of not experiencing astronomical darkness, we are finally seeing fairly long hours of astro dark skies in Scarborough again. Our period of astronomical darkness is between 21:18 and 04:33. These times will change depending on where you live. Further South you reach darkness earlier and further North you reach darkness later.
WHAT LOCATION IS GOOD FOR AURORA?
We often get asked where is a good location to see the aurora. Typically the further North, the better. However this does depend on Earth weather and if you can't travel. It's good to have somewhere close by that you can get to quickly. Typically anywhere with a good view of the Northern Horizon and as little light pollution as possible in the immediate area and towards the North is good.
If the aurora is particularly strong it is possible to view a display from light polluted areas, although this only happens on rare occasions.
WHAT TIME WILL THE AURORA HAPPEN?
This is impossible to predict. We won't know if and when the aurora will likely occur until it reaches the satellites an hour or so before arrival. At this point we will be writing aurora updates in the comments and will continue to do this throughout the night, so please do keep your eye our for these. If you'd like to make sure you receive notifications for these, please click the 3 dots above this post and click "turn on notifications for this post".
HOW LONG DOES THE AURORA LAST?
Sometimes an auroral display can last for a few minutes, sometimes a few hours and sometimes across multiple evenings. It is important to remember that often the aurora has more intense flurries, so even if it's not visible straight away, it can be worth waiting it out and you may be rewarded for your patience.
VISIBLE TO THE EYE/VISIBLE ON CAMERA?
If you own a camera and tripod that will allow you to take long exposure photographs, we recommend you take this out with you to maximise your chances of viewing an auroral display.
The aurora is often only visible on camera rather than to the eyes. Cameras are also able to capture all the vivid colours that the aurora can display. The reason for this is because camera sensors are much more sensitive to low levels of light compared to the human eye, especially when capturing long exposure photographs which gather more light over multiple seconds. If the aurora is very strong then you can even catch it hand held on your mobile phones using night mode.
But you never know, when we have strong displays the Aurora can become visible to the eye. It has been visible to the eye in Scarborough quite a few times lately! We will see! 👀
When the aurora is visible to the eye, you may see a subtle glow/brightening on the horizon. Occasionally you may be able to see definition/structures such as light columns stretching into the sky and moving side to side. On rare occasions you may also be able to see subtle patches of colours (usually reds) too! However don’t expect to see anything as vivid as a photograph taken on a camera.
LET YOUR EYES ADAPT TO THE DARK
In the rare chance that a display is strong enough to view by eye, it can help being in a dark place and letting your eyes adjust to the darkness. If you can, do not look at any bright lights such as streetlights or mobile phones for roughly 15 -30 minutes and you will be able to see much fainter details towards the North. This can help you maximise your chances of viewing the aurora by eye. Usually the further North you are, the more chance you have of seeing the aurora to the naked eye.
CLOSING WORDS FROM ASTRO DOG
Whilst this could lead to something exciting, there is no guarantee. Timing is crucial here. We often find that the charged particles can hit our atmosphere in daylight hours, which is no good for us and then fizzle out when we reach darkness, or the Earth weather scuppers things or direction of the interplanetary magnetic field does not cooperate etc.
There is still a long way until dark tonight and anything can happen between now and then. As we all know, we can't guarantee as many things have to come together just right to accumulate in an aurora display, however many of the ingredients are in place.
We also won't know exactly how good this may be until data reaches satellite level around an hour ahead of reaching Earth. We have our fingers crossed everything comes together just right to accumulate in a great aurora display!
We will make sure to be watching the satellites that give us a better idea of what we might expect through the day/night and be ready to inform you if everything looks good for a display.
Please follow this post and we will do our best to update throughout the day and night. Lets keep our fingers crossed for later. Cross your fingers please everybody! 🤞
Don’t worry if you don’t get to see or catch the aurora this time, this coming season is predicted to be great for aurora displays due to us heading into solar maximum – a time within the Sun’s 11 year cycle where it is most active. We have been treated to some incredible displays these last couple of seasons. So fingers crossed we will be treated to some big flares/coronal mass ejections launched out towards Earth as the skies become darker for longer again.
Good luck if you head out, stay safe and as always we wish you clear skies. 💚💜💙✨️