SOLAR REPORT - CHANCE OF AURORA TONIGHT! G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH STILL IN PLACE DUE TO POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW. PLUS AR 3697 HAS LET OFF ANOTHER TWO X CLASS SOLAR FLARES! WHILST IMPULSIVE, THIS IS STILL VERY EXCITING INDEED! 😍💚💜💙✨️
Since our last solar report the sunspot region AR3697 (previously named AR3664) responsible for the extreme geomagnetic storm on May 10th, has continued to show no let up and has continued releasing solar flares. Although these recent flares did not produce CME and the region has decayed since it has returned to face Earth again, it is still exciting to see this continued activity.
NOAA/SWPC still have their G2 geomagnetic storm watch from the 31st of May in place which means we could still have a chance of seeing an Aurora display tonight, but check back with us before rushing out.
Please read on for more information…
G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH STILL IN PLACE
The G2 geomagnetic storm watch put in place on the 31st of May is still in place. NOAA/SWPC have kept this storm watch in place as they are still anticipating the possibility of a glancing blow from the recent X1.4 flare that released a CME on the 30th of May.
This means we may still have the possibility for an auroral display tonight!
CHANCE OF AURORA THIS EVENING
While the majority of the recent coronal mass ejection from AR 3697 was launched off the eastern limb away from Earth, it is thought that we have the possibility of receiving a glancing blow from this eruption. This means some of the charged particles released from this CME may reach Earth resulting in enhanced aurora levels!
However, as always we won’t know when or if the material from this CME will reach Earth. The material may completely miss the Earth on its journey through space, it could arrive in the daytime when it is not possible to view the aurora or it could just fizzle out and not be as strong as we would have hoped. Many factors have to come together just right to result in an auroral display, but we can always hope!
If there does happen to be an auroral display tonight, don’t expect anything similar to the amazing all sky, visible to the eye, major geomagnetic storm we experienced on the 10th of May. We are only expecting a glancing blow from this CME and any display will likely not be visible to the eye (visible to camera only) and appear just above the Northern horizon. Our bright twilight skies will also add to the challenge of viewing/capturing a display. But who knows? We could be treated to another amazing display to usher in the start of the month of June.
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FROM AR3697 (FORMERLY AR3664)
The prolific sunspot region AR3697 has recently let out not one, but two X class solar flares in the last 24 hours.
This time AR3697 was responsible for a long duration X1.1 solar flare which peaked at 22:03 UTC (31 May) AND an X1.3 solar flare which peaked at 08:48 UTC (1 June).
Sadly these look to be impulsive flares with neither of them being eruptive/producing coronal mass ejections (CME) so we do not expect any charged particles from these events to be heading towards Earth.
REGION DECAYED BUT STILL VERY ACTIVE
While region AR3697 has decayed somewhat since its last rotation, it is showing that it still means business firing off frequent M class and X class solar flares.
Part of the reason for this is that the region still has a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout with one large delta structure. Within the sunspot's primary core, two oppositely-signed magnetic poles are crowded together, + vs. -. When this happens, magnetic recombination events are more likely to occur and can cause very powerful explosions, even from a sunspot that's falling apart.
POSSIBILITY FOR FUTURE FLARES
NOAA believes we still have a possibility of M and/or low-level X-class activity in the days ahead. Current NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of X-flares and a 75% chance of M-flares on June 1st.
If any flares do occur, they may have the chance of erupting and sending a flurry of charged particles to us here on Earth, boosting auroral activity and resulting in auroral displays.
REGION NOW FACING US
Region AR3697 survived a full rotation of the Sun, has continued to rotate around and is now facing us. This means that any eruptive solar flares/coronal mass ejections from the region in the near future could be launched our way. This is very exciting news indeed!
CLOSING WORDS
It’s exciting to know that AR3697 has continued to show frequent strong activity. We are hoping AR3697 continues to be prolific with its activity and produces more amazing aurora displays here on Earth. Fingers and toes crossed! 💖✨️
We will continue to monitor the space weather stats and will keep everyone updated on the possibility of Aurora tonight.