SOLAR REPORT – CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG AURORA OVER THE COMING NIGHTS! GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH NOW IN PLACE! 😍💚💜💙✨️
Our skies are finally starting to get darker again and our nights are becoming longer. The stars were looking beautiful last night and what’s more is our nearest star (our sun) has been very active recently which is very exciting indeed!
The sun has been very busy, with multiple sunspot regions producing flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in the last several days. Due to this we could be in for some Aurora activity over the next couple of nights!
A moderate to major geomagnetic storm watch has been put in place and we may start seeing auroral activity as early as tonight.
Don’t expect anything as strong as the 10th of May and don’t rush outside just yet, we may not see anything at all. However, if everything does come together just right we could be in for a good show!
Please check back with us for more updates tonight!
We will be on the Aurora watch from tonight, providing regular Aurora updates throughout the night and the following nights to keep you all updated with the latest information.
If you would like to know more, please read on for more detailed information…
A ROUND UP OF RECENT SOLAR ACTIVITY – BOTH FARSIDED AND EARTH FACING
MAJOR FAR SIDED EVENTS – INCLUDING A X14 FLARE, THE STRONGEST FLARE OF SOLAR CYCLE 25!
Last week, a major event produced an huge X class flare on the far side of the Sun. This flare was estimated to be a X14 class flare, which is by far the strongest flare of solar cycle 25. Unfortunately as this flare was on the far side of the Sun, any solar material that the flare ejected will not be travelling to us here on Earth.
Images have confirmed that this flare produced an impressive Coronal Mass Ejection and if this flare had been earth facing, we could have experienced another amazing night of auroral displays similar to that of May the 10th.
This X14 flare is thought to have been caused by old sunspot region 3738 which is expected to rotate back into view by July 31st. Hopefully this region will remain active as it rotates back towards the Earth strike zone.
Following this, on July 27th another strong X1.0 Coronal Mass Ejection was spotted on the far side of the Sun. Again, whilst directed away from Earth, it is very exciting to see such strong activity and hopefully this continues as these regions rotate into view.
EARTH FACING SOLAR ACTIVITY
While the activity on the far side of the Sun has been very exciting indeed, the Earth facing side has also been rather active too! Here is a summary of some of the activity of interest.
LONG DURATION M3.1 FLARE – 27/07/24
On the 27th a long duration M3.1 flare was observed around AR 3762 at 05:43 UTC. Subsequent imagery has shown a wave of plasma following this event which may be Earthbound!
M9.9 FLARE - ALMOST AN X FLARE! - 28/07/24
On July 28th a strong M9.9 flare was detected around AR 3766 at 01:57 UTC. A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 943 km/s was recorded, a wave of plasma was visible and it did produce a fairly slow moving halo coronal mass ejection which appears to be Earth directed. This may arrive here on earth within the next 48 hours.
X1.5 FLARE! – 29/07/24
This morning another impressive X1.5 solar flare was detected around AR 3764/3766 peaking at 02:37 UTC. A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 535 km/s was recorded. While a plasma wave appears evident, it appears to be fairly small in nature, so if a coronal mass ejection has been produced, it is likely to be fairly weak. However, a weak coronal mass ejection from an Earth facing X flare is better than it being completely impulsive though! Given these regions are now directly facing our planet and are in a great position for Earth directed eruptions, we will be watching them with keen interest.
M8.7 FLARE! – 29/07/24
Another M8.7 class solar flare was detected around the sunspot region AR3762 today at 12:55 UTC. Not much is known about this flare yet as it occurred very recently.
CANNIBAL CME!
It is thought that a number of the recent coronal mass ejections have merged on their way to Earth to create what is called a cannibal coronal mass ejection. This may lead to a combined impact of great strength in the next 24 hours or so and could potentially lead to a strong auroral display!
G2/G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE 30TH JULY!
Due to all the recent solar activity and the possibility of the impact of a cannibal CME, NOAA/SWPC now have a moderate g2 to strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch in place from the 30th of July.
Unfortunately the arrival of the G2/G3 storm is predicted to happen during daylight hours. However it is always possible that the storm may travel faster or slower, arriving here on Earth earlier or later than predicted.
This means we may have a chance of seeing an Aurora display from as early as tonight, but please check back with us before rushing out.
We will be on the Aurora watch from tonight, providing regular Aurora updates throughout the night and the following nights to keep you all updated with the latest information.
POSSIBILITY FOR FUTURE FLARES
There are a large number of regions of interest that are currently active and there is the possibility of further M class solar flares and even more X class solar flares in the coming days.
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
While all the recent solar activity is very exciting, it is important to bear in mind that many factors have to come together just right to accumulate in an auroral display and mother nature loves to throw curve balls.
As always, we won’t know exactly when or if the material from these CMEs will reach Earth. The material may completely miss the Earth on its journey through space, it could arrive in the daytime when it is not possible to view the aurora or it could just fizzle out and not be as strong as we would have hoped. Many factors have to come together just right to result in an auroral display, but we can only go by the data available and keep our fingers crossed!
If there does happen to be an auroral display over the coming nights, please don’t expect anything similar to the amazing all sky, visible to the eye, major geomagnetic storm we experienced on the 10th of May.
While this could be a strong display if everything lines up right, on May the 10th absolutely everything lined up just right with multiple high strength coronal mass ejections all combining and hitting at once during the night time, with very little moon interference and clear skies across much of the UK. But who knows? We could be treated to another amazing display to usher in the new aurora season.
FURTHER AURORA UPDATES AND TIPS FOR AURORA CHASING
Please check back with us later, we will be posting more updates on Aurora developments and will also include information on what to consider when aurora chasing and tips to maximise your chances of viewing an auroral display!
CONCLUSION / CLOSING WORDS
All in all it has been fairly active up there on our nearest star and it looks like we may be in luck for aurora activity over the next few nights!
Hopefully the predicted G2/G3 geomagnetic storm will result in some amazing auroral displays over the next few nights and let’s hope that the region responsible for the recent huge X14 flare will continue to show strong activity as it rotates around to face Earth.
Please keep checking back with us for further Aurora updates.
We will be on the Aurora watch from tonight, we will continue to monitor the space weather stats and will be providing regular Aurora updates throughout the night and the following nights to keep you all updated with the latest information.
We have our fingers crossed that everything comes together just right for a great auroral display and we hope that lots of you get to experience it too!
Another thing to mention is that we have multiple meteor showers active currently, so do keep your eyes out for shooting stars! We will be creating a post about these meteor showers soon!