UPDATE 23:05 BST - Lots more sightings being reported with strong aurora visible down to Northern England!
UPDATE 22:37 BST - Lots of sightings being reported in Norway, Finland, and across Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland. It's definitely worth heading out to check your Northern horizon!
Main Body Updated 20:30 BST, 7th September 2026
Things are ramping up significantly and tonight and tomorrow are looking like the most promising aurora nights we have had for a while. A C5 CME has now been modelled as a potential direct hit on 8th September, the ENLIL model is one of the busiest forecasters have seen in years, and current solar wind stats are looking very encouraging indeed. Here is a full breakdown of what is happening and what it means for aurora watchers across the British Isles.
Tonight 7th September
Solar wind conditions have been enhancing throughout the day due to the arrival of the CIR (Co-rotating Interaction Region) from Coronal Hole 91. Stats are currently looking very encouraging with strong IMF enhancements, and substorm drops of -800 nT may be possible tonight. This all means we could be looking at some fairly nice aurora visible on camera (and possibly by eye) down to Northern England and possibly even further south if conditions improve further.
Unfortunately cloud cover is a mixed bag across the UK tonight, with the best opportunities in the Scottish Borders and a band of clearer sky running through Ireland and southern Scotland. If you have clear skies to your north tonight it is absolutely worth heading out!
Current solar wind conditions (as of 20:30 BST)
Solar wind conditions are currently looking very encouraging indeed:
- Solar wind speed — currently at 490 km/s, a nicely elevated speed that has been sustained since around 05:00 BST this morning, consistent with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream
- Solar wind density — currently at 19 p/cm³, a strong level which is excellent fuel for geomagnetic activity. Density reached a peak of 23 p/cm³ earlier today
- IMF strength (Bt) — currently at 13 nT and on an upward trend, having hovered around 10 nT for most of the day. A rising Bt is an encouraging sign
- IMF polarity (Bz) — currently at a very encouraging -12 nT and has been holding southward for the last 40 minutes. This is the key ingredient for aurora development, the longer it holds south the better! 🤞
These are genuinely strong stats. The sustained solar wind speed, high density, rising Bt and now a strongly negative Bz are all pointing in the right direction. If the Bz continues to hold southward we could see some nice aurora activity developing tonight.
Tomorrow 8th September
This is where it gets really exciting. A C5 solar flare from AR 4524 has now been modelled by NOAA SWPC as a potential direct hit, arriving around 8th September at approximately 17:00 UT. This is a significant upgrade from earlier models which suggested only a glancing blow.
You might think a C5 sounds modest, but a direct hit from a C5 can still result in some very nice aurora.
On top of this there are currently seven or eight CMEs visible in the ENLIL model. This is one of the busiest models forecasters have seen in a long time. Some of these may arrive ahead of the C5 and interact with it, potentially amplifying or complicating the impact. The G1 storm watch currently in place for 8th September could well be upgraded to a G2.
We will be watching the data closely and will keep you updated throughout tomorrow as the picture becomes clearer.
Earth weather
Cloud cover is the main obstacle tonight with cloud forecast across much of the UK throughout the night. The best opportunities will be for those in Eastern Scotland and North-West Ireland earlier in the night, with clear skies forecast to spread further east across the rest of Ireland and Northern England as the night progresses. Iceland is looking exceptional tonight if anyone happens to be there! 🇮🇸
Lunar conditions
Great news on the Moon front! The Moon will not be rising until around 02:16 BST and will only be around 11% illuminated, so lunar light pollution will hardly be an issue at all tonight. 🌙
Who has the best chance tonight?
Those in Eastern Scotland and North-West Ireland have the best opportunities early in the night, with conditions potentially improving for Northern England and the rest of Ireland as the night progresses. The key factors will be how long the Bz remains southward, whether the additional CMEs in transit provide further boosts, and of course local cloud cover.
Tips for aurora spotting
- Get away from light pollution — even a short drive out of town can make a dramatic difference
- Allow your eyes to dark adapt — give yourself at least 15–20 minutes away from bright lights
- Use your camera — the aurora is often visible in camera images before it becomes clearly visible to the naked eye. Try a 10–15 second exposure at a high ISO pointing toward the northern horizon
- Face north — the aurora will appear on the northern horizon, rising higher into the sky as activity increases
- Stay patient — aurora activity can come and go in bursts. It is worth staying out for a while and checking periodically
- Monitor space weather — keep an eye on Space Weather Live (spaceweatherlive.com) or the Met Office Space Weather forecast for real-time updates
- Stay safe — if heading out to dark sky locations, let someone know where you are going and take a torch and warm layers
We'll keep watching
We will be monitoring conditions throughout the evening and into tomorrow and will post updates as the picture develops. If you spot the aurora tonight, we would love to see your photos, please share them with us on Facebook and Instagram @astrodoguk! 💚
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Wishing you good luck and clear skies! ✨
