🚨 ASTRO DOG SOLAR REPORT AND AURORA ALERT 🚨 POTENTIAL FOR AURORA FROM TONIGHT AND IN THE DAYS TO COME! 💚💜💙✨️
💚 POSSIBILITY OF AURORA FROM TONIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS!
💚 POSSIBILITY OF G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM TOMORROW 4TH – 5TH JUNE DUE TO POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS FROM MULTIPLE CME'S!
💚 LARGE CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON (MAY HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED)!
💚 POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ACTIVITY DUE TO HIGHLY ACTIVE SUNSPOT REGIONS
The Sun has been extremely busy recently!
To quickly sum up, there has been quite a few exciting events with a large centrally located coronal hole and some highly active sunspot regions releasing CME's that have all led to a G3 (Strong) level geomagnetic storm watch being put in place by NOAA.
This all means we could see some good auroral activity over the next few evenings that might even be able to cut through the endless twilight skies and bright moon light. Fingers crossed!
For more details, please read on…
CORONAL HOLE #62
An exciting centrally located large coronal hole (CH62) has been slowly rotating into an Earth facing position.
Coronal Hole #62 rotated to direct face Earth a couple of days ago. It was predicted that the high speed solar wind stream from this coronal hole could reach our planet beginning today June 3rd and into the 4th.
The high speed stream from CH62 has the potential to lead to heightened solar winds and fairly strong auroral activity and we may in fact already be starting to see the initial effects of the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream.
EXCITING SOLAR ACTIVITY
While the Sun has been fairly quiet for a while, things have dramatically changed in the last 24 hours! In the last 24 hours the Sun has gone ballistic, firing off a filament eruption and multiple eruptive solar flares resulting in CME's which could lead to some nice auroral activity.
There is currently quite a few sunspot regions that are facing towards Earth but there is one in particular which is very exciting.
Old sunspot region 4432 (the source of multiple large solar flares and coronal mass ejections while on the far side of the Sun), now named AR 4455, has been rotating back into view over the last few days and the region rotated back into view with a bang, unleashing several spectacular solar flares ranging from C class to strong M class flares and even one reaching the strongest X class level!
Several of these flares have also resulted in CME's and at least 3 of these CME's have been predicted to have Earth directed components which may arrive at some time on the 4th and 5th of June.
A recent statement NOAA suggests that there is still uncertainty about the timing of arrival of these CMEs and that one is stronger than the others which means a combination event (also known to some as a "cannibal CME") is very likely!
This has led to NOAA putting a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch in place for the 4th and 5th.
All of this exciting activity means that there is POTENTIAL for rather strong auroral activity here on Earth if everything falls into place. Lets keep our fingers crossed! 🤞
CURRENT STATS
At this moment in time the stats are looking like we are seeing the arrival of the Coronal High Speed Stream from CH62.
EPAM readings are showing a steady increase in proton levels which can be a sign of an incoming solar event.
The solar wind speed is hovering around slightly elevated levels of around 430 km/s.
There has been spikes in density with readings reaching around 15 p/ccm throughout the day readings were generally fluctuating around low levels of 5 p/ccm, but just now we have also seen an increase in average readings fluctuating around 7-8 p/ccm.
We have just recently seen a sharp increase in the IMF strength (Bt) with readings rising up to moderate readings of around 11 Bt. This is a good sign!
The polarity of the IMF (Bz) has been fluctuating north and south but has just seen a big drop south reaching almost -8 Bz. Hopefully this stays south allowing the strength of the aurora to build.
From these stats it looks like there may be chance of Aurora this evening if the stats hold!
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
It is worth keeping in mind that even though we have been forecast G3 geomagnetic storms, things sometimes end up different to the forecasts. The particles from the solar wind can fizzle out, they can miss us all together, they can arrive during our hours of daylight, and they can arrive with the wrong polarity and not interact with our magnetic field. There is also the Earth weather and the Moon to consider as well, plus at this time of year any auroral activity must also be strong enough to cut through the endless twilight.
EARTH WEATHER
While there is a lot of cloud and rain around tonight, forecasts suggest that some of us might be treated to pockets of clear or partially clear skies. Particularly around the Moray Coast in Scotland, around Yorkshire, Norfolk, parts of Wales and little patches here and there. Although by large it looks like there is cloud across much of the UK.
Tomorrow looks a lot better, not perfect by any means, but it looks like many more of us will be treated to clear/partially clear skies. Particularly from Yorkshire and below and much of Ireland and Wales. However cloud and rain is forecast to come in from the West across Ireland and Wales later on.
Friday doesn't look too great, with a huge weather front moving in from the West as we reach dark. East is definitely best on Friday, but if the forecast is correct then we won't have long until we are clouded out. It might just hold off on the East coast until we lose our darker skies at around 2am, but we will see.
However, as we all know, the Earth weather forecasts are never 100 percent accurate and things can and do change, so it's worth heading out and checking your local skies in person.
UNFAVOURABLE LUNAR CONDITIONS + ENDLESS TWILIGHT
The Moon only just reached its full phase on the 31st of May and so the Moon is currently in its waning gibbous phase. This means that when the Moon is in the sky it will be quite bright and causing a lot of natural light pollution, making it harder to catch aurora. Tonight the Moon will rise at around midnight, leaving a little time of darkish moonless skies, but the upside is that the moon will rise slightly later and be slightly less illuminated each night from now.
At this moment in time we are also experiencing endless summer twilight, and so the skies never reach true darkness which makes it harder to catch an Aurora display.
All of this being said, if the Aurora is strong enough it can outshine the Moon and twilight, just like the incredible display that we experienced in June last year. Again, lets keep our fingers crossed!
CLOSING WORDS + FOLLOW OUR FACEBOOK POST OR JOIN OUR WHATSAPP GROUP FOR UPDATES
We may be treated to some elevated aurora activity from tonight, plus there is the possibility of stronger activity over the next few nights if everything falls into place.
Of course, we will be keeping an eye on the satellite data and keep you all updated. This will give us around 30/60 minutes notice before impact here on Earth.
Please follow for up to date/accurate Aurora alerts.
We always make sure to keep an eye on things throughout the night and alert you if things are looking promising to give you all the best chance possible of seeing and catching photographs of the aurora yourselves. 😊💖
Wishing you good luck and clear skies. ✨️