UPDATE 12:55 BST 02/07/2026: NOAA/SWPC have updated their geomagnetic storm watches and now both the 3rd and 4th of July have a G2 (moderate) watch in place.
UPDATE 02:51 BST 02/07/2026: NOAA/SWPC have now changed their geomagnetic storm watch to span across the 3rd-4th of July. With a short period of G2 storming early on the 3rd transitioning to G1 conditions that continue into the 4th of July. Will update with further developments.
Aurora / Northern Lights Update 02/07/2026
Hi everyone, just a quick aurora update.
What's Happened?
Some exciting solar activity has taken place recently! Yesterday evening at 21:50 BST sunspot region AR4479 fired a X1.1 flare that released a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) with a possible earthbound component.
When Could It Arrive?
Computer models are predicting arrival of the incoming solar wind from this CME will be the morning of the 3rd of July.
This means we could be looking at some aurora activity in the coming days if everything falls into place!
What Are the Chances?
However, things don't always pan out how we want things to (just like back in June), and some sources are saying that unfortunately the majority of the material will be heading away from Earth and at best we will have only a glancing blow.
Only time will tell, but let's keep our fingers crossed for some aurora activity in the coming days!
Official Storm Watch Issued
In an encouraging development, NOAA/SWPC have issued a G1āG2 geomagnetic storm watch for the 3rd of July due to the impending arrival of the CME from the X1.1 flare. This is a positive sign that there is a real chance of aurora activity.
Further Activity to Watch
AR4479 has also been busy firing off lots of M class flares too and so there is still a chance for further CMEs from this region and a handful of other sunspot regions that are on the Earth facing side of the sun.
As always, we will keep you updated with any further developments.
Clear Skies!
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