SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORT UPDATE! CHANCE OF AURORA TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW FROM X1.4 SOLAR FLARE! G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH NOW IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT - 31ST MAY. 💚💜💙✨️
Following up from our previous solar report surrounding the X1.4 flare from region AR3697 ( the sunspot region previously known as AR3644 that was responsible for the incredible Geomagnetic Storm on May 10th) this X flare was indeed eruptive and has sent a stream of energised particles out into space.
This recent activity has the possibility of resulting in an auroral display tonight, but don’t think this is for certain. Please check back with us for more updates before you rush out.
If you would like more information please read on…
POSSIBILITY OF AURORA
While the majority of the recent coronal mass ejection from AR 3697was launched off the eastern limb away from Earth, it is thought that we may well receive a glancing blow from this eruption. This means some of the charged particles released from this CME may reach Earth resulting in enhanced aurora levels!
However, as always we won’t know when or if the material from this CME will reach Earth. The material may completely miss the Earth on it’s journey through space, it could arrive in the daytime when it is not possible to view the aurora or it could just fizzle out and not be as strong as we would have hoped. Many factors have to come together just right to result in an auroral display, but we can always hope!
If there does happen to be an auroral display tonight, don’t expect anything similar to the amazing all sky, visible to the eye, major geomagnetic storm we experienced on the 10th of May. We are only expecting a glancing blow from this CME and any display will likely not be visible to the eye (visible to camera only) and appear just above the Northern horizon. Our bright twilight skies will also add to the challenge of viewing/capturing a display. But who knows? We could be treated to another great display to usher in the start of the month of June.
G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH IN PLACE
NOAA/SWPC now have a Moderate (G2) Geomagnetic Storm in place for May 31st (today), so we will be watching the space weather satellite readings around the clock. Should things look promising for a possible auroral display, we will make sure to update everyone. 😊
OTHER ACTIVITY FROM AR3697
AR3697 has also been busy firing off several M class flares and it is still possible we might be treated to further X class flares in the near future.
Furthermore, AR3697 (previously AR3664) will soon enter the Earth strike zone, which means any CMEs released from the region will have a much higher chance of being directed to us on Earth. We are keeping all of our fingers crossed in the hope of more incredible aurora displays!
OTHER SOLAR ACTIVITY OF INTEREST
Other areas of interest include Region 3691 (previously known as AR3663). This region was responsible for a handful of X flares throughout its last rotation and has produced a number of M class solar flares since it rotated back into view. It is now within the Earth strike zone, therefore any subsequent eruptions should be sent our way.
We also have a large filament region entering the Earth Strike zone, so again any eruption from this may be directed towards Earth.
CHECK BACK WITH ASTRO DOG FOR UPDATES
We will be keeping an eye on space weather and will make sure to provide updates throughout the night to alert you all should things look promising for a possible aurora display. Please look out for our following aurora post which we will write up closer to nightfall.
If any of you do head out aurora hunting tonight, stay safe, good luck and we wish you clear skies.
